OREMAVEN
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2026-11-06
◂ Monitor S32 ASX

South32 Limited

Producer · Copper · Silver · Zinc · Lead · Manganese · Bauxite · Others · CL · AU · ZA · US · MZ · BR · CA Rating locked: sign in to view v8 · s32-20261024t160255-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$4.44
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
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Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$19.9B
EV
A$19.5B
Cash
US$2.1B
Debt
US$1.1B
13 newer ASX announcements not yet reflected in this valuation

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-06-30
Cash US$2.1B Not Meaningful
Debt US$1.1B Net cash US$1B
Basic shares 4.5B 2026-09-30
Runway Not Meaningful Diversified producer with construction program; no Appendix5B quarterly burn. June cash is not current spendable disposal proceeds.

Liquidity

Financial position

Reported unrestricted June cash US$2.129bn and US$1.4bn undrawn revolver. The valuation separately estimates 13 October cash at US$1.872bn after elapsed retained operations, construction, leases and buybacks. Conditional sale receipts are future cash; declared dividend US$242m remains payable on 15 October.

Inventory composition1

US$812m current plus US$32m non-current operating materials, work in progress and finished product. Inventory supports existing revenue and is not a separate equity add-on; the transaction pro forma removes US$743m of sold-business inventory.

Operating raw materials, WIP and finished product
US$844M carrying

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
4.5B
Fully diluted
4.5B

Ordinary 4,486,485,738 minus actual September cancellation 3,173,740 = 4,483,311,998. Annual awards 45,244,653 + 580 new rights - 6,129,245 transferred existing shares - 4,208,757 lapsed = 34,907,231. Fully diluted 4,518,219,229. This preserves 744,349 awards above the ASX registration opening count of 44,500,304; that unresolved registration/timing difference is not assumed away. Existing-share transfers do not increase ordinary shares. Later purchased but uncancelled shares are not deducted again.

Security classes2
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Ordinary fully paid shares after actual September cancellationOrdinary Share4.5B——
Conservative remaining share awards, starting with the larger annual-report total and applying actual disclosed issue, vesting and lapse movements; all assumed to vest.Performance Right34.9MA$0—

KPI history

Operating metrics

Comparable series use a shared scale

Payable copper · Sierra Gorda · Year

t Cu

2 periods
  1. FY2571,400 t Cu
    Reported
  2. FY2669,200 t Cu
    Reported

Payable silver · Cannington · Year

oz Ag

2 periods
  1. FY2510,292,000 oz Ag
    Reported
  2. FY268,906,000 oz Ag
    Reported

Saleable manganese ore · Australia Manganese GEMCO · Year

wet t ore

2 periods
  1. FY251,106,000 wet t ore
    Reported
  2. FY263,031,000 wet t ore
    Reported

Saleable manganese ore · South Africa Manganese operating interests · Year

wet t ore

2 periods
  1. FY252,151,000 wet t ore
    Reported
  2. FY262,085,000 wet t ore
    Reported
Operating metric source table8
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Payable copperSierra GordaFY25Year71,400 t CuReported
Payable copperSierra GordaFY26Year69,200 t CuReported
Payable silverCanningtonFY25Year10,292,000 oz AgReported
Payable silverCanningtonFY26Year8,906,000 oz AgReported
Saleable manganese oreGemcoFY25Year1,106,000 wet t oreReported
Saleable manganese oreGemcoFY26Year3,031,000 wet t oreReported
Saleable manganese oreSa ManganeseFY25Year2,151,000 wet t oreReported
Saleable manganese oreSa ManganeseFY26Year2,085,000 wet t oreReported
Company guidance3
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Payable Copper Attributablesierra-gordaFY2779,00079,000 t CuCurrent
Payable Silver AttributablecanningtonFY278,725,0008,725,000 oz AgCurrent
Saleable Wet Manganese Ore AttributablegemcoFY272,650,0002,900,000 wet t oreCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

2 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-10-13BuybackUS$209M——Ongoing—
2026-10-15Ann. 2026-08-27DividendUS$242M——Announced—

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Partial · as of 2026-10-13

Material disposal, venture ownership, financing, conditional Trilogy disposal/call, legacy earnouts and indexed sales reviewed. Unpublished individual royalty/earn-in and customer schedules remain a coverage limit; none is treated as a perpetual fixed-price hedge.

Conditional locked-box disposal: US$3.1bn cash with adjustments and 5% annual equity return from the transaction meeting, 17,008,960 fixed Alcoa shares/CDIs, plus price-linked earnout capped at US$750m through June 2030. Conditional completion uses locked-box economics with no duplicate earnings. Failure instead retains source-backed operating value and all claims, with no sale receipts/releases;85%closing is an analyst assumption and both whole-company common payoffs precede weighting in the single event project.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Alcoa Corporation
Applies to
Aluminium conditional sale or retention event · Bauxite · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Cash purchase price: 3,100,000,000 USD
Fixed Alcoa ordinary shares: 17,008,960 shares
Contingent cap: 750,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

45% mine economics. Aggregate mine cash-flow value includes the economic benefit of the South32 shareholder loan and equity; the US$1.780bn loan asset is not added again. External venture borrowing and cash are reconciled separately.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
KGHM Polska Miedź
Applies to
Sierra Gorda · Copper · Gold · Silver · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Economic ownership: 45 %
Loan interest: 8 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

GEMCO60% operating share; South Africa54.6% operating economic share but physical mineral resource44.4%; Samancor subsidiary legal holdings distinguish both.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
Anglo American · Local empowerment shareholders
Applies to
Australia Manganese GEMCO · South Africa Manganese operating interests · Manganese
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Australia operating share: 60 %
South Africa operating share: 54.6 %
SA mineral ownership: 44.4 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

50% Ambler Metals JV;42mUSD gross2026 work program21mSouth32share; unbuilt road/permitting and capital requirements dominate.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
Trilogy Metals
Applies to
Ambler Metals Arctic and Bornite · Copper · Zinc · Lead · Silver · Gold
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Ownership: 50 %
CY26 work program: 42,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Legacy coal sale contingent receivable147mUSD materially commodity dependent; remaining5mother receivable. Not related to new Alcoa earnout.

Other · Active
Counterparties
Not separately specified
Applies to
Non-operating financial holdings · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Coal contingent fair value: 147,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Physical sales predominantly indexed; provisional pricing and shipment mix can change realised receipts. No disclosed long dated fixed-price commodity hedge at cutoff.

Offtake · Active
Counterparties
Not separately specified
Applies to
Sierra Gorda · Cannington · Australia Manganese GEMCO · South Africa Manganese operating interests · Copper · Silver · Zinc · Lead · Manganese
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Greenfield earn-in and royalty options include Selena; portfolio-level terms cannot support individual numeric cash-flow values.

Earn In · Active
Counterparties
Ridgeline Minerals · Other exploration partners
Applies to
Exploration royalty and earn-in options · Copper · Zinc · Silver · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

At-call cash-management amount owed to EAIs US$379m, own economic share of pool asset estimated at 60%; Sierra Gorda external facility gross US$400m and cash US$129m. Venture financial claims and residual own loans are reconciled to avoid a second shareholder-loan add-on.

Other · Active
Counterparties
Equity-accounted ventures and lenders
Applies to
Company-wide · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Conditional sale of 8.2m Trilogy shares for US$18m plus ten-year call over 6.2m shares at US$0.01 after road completion. Annual carrying value US$65m includes this investment. Analyst deduction US$15m for contractual burden, bounded at US$0–30m.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
US Department of War
Applies to
Non-operating financial holdings · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.