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2026-11-06
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Centaurus Metals Limited

DFS Unfunded Developer · Nickel · BR Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · ctm-20261106t144519-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$0.355
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—
Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$233.7M
EV
A$191.5M
Cash
A$11.1M
Debt
A$0

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash A$11.1M2025-12-31: 24,577,181 A$2026-06-30: 17,498,772 A$2026-09-30: 11,068,000 A$ Finite
Debt A$0 Net cash A$11.1M
Basic shares 658.2M 2026-11-06
Runway 4.9 quarters Cash A$11.07m at 30 Sep 2026 plus A$35.6m tranche 1 received 3-4 Nov 2026, divided by the September quarter operating and investing outflow of A$9.51m (about 4.9 quarters). Excludes the conditional tranche 2 and any debt.

Liquidity

Financial position

Liquidity is limited: about A$47m after tranche 1 against a build cost of about A$570m including buffers. Senior debt (non-binding proposals up to US$320m; BNDES LOI about US$190m) and new equity are required before construction. The company must raise further equity or debt to reach FID, and the cash runway ends before first production (H1 2029) without new funding.

Inventory composition1

Stores only; no concentrate or ore inventory exists before production.

Stores and consumables (inventories at 30 June 2026)
A$80K carrying

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
658.2M
Fully diluted
743.5M

574,428,304 shares at 30 Sep 2026 (Appendix 5B) plus 41,903,070 (Glencore, issued 30 Oct 2026) and 41,861,322 (CNGR, issued 3 Nov 2026) = 658,192,696. Options: 22,025,955 vested at A$0.50 and 13,025,400 unvested, per the quarterly capital structure table; 12 Share Options table in the FY2025 report showed 41,192,431 at 31 Dec 2025. Fully diluted adds the 50,283,684 conditional tranche 2 shares.

Security classes4
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Ordinary shares on issue (after 30 Sep 2026 placements to Glencore and CNGR)Ordinary Share658.2M——
Unlisted options, exercise A$0.50, vestedOption22MA$0.52027-11-30
Unvested options and performance rights (nil exercise price, expiry 2027-2029)Performance Right13MA$0—
Tranche 2 subscriptions by Glencore and CNGR (US$7.5m each) at A$0.425, conditional on shareholder approval, FID and ODIOther50.3MA$0.4252027-01-31

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY2024AAFY2025AA
Profit and loss
Revenue (nickel and by-products)AUDm0.00.0
Operating costs and corporate costs (cash basis)AUDmFY2024A: -19,438,228 AUDFY2025A: -14,844,345 AUD(19.4)(14.8)
EBITDA (company-basis operating result before D&A)AUDmFY2024A: -19,438,228 AUDFY2025A: -14,844,345 AUD(19.4)(14.8)
Net profit after tax (attributable)AUDmFY2024A: -18,445,636 AUDFY2025A: -14,308,070 AUD(18.4)(14.3)
Cash flow
Operating cash flow (forecast = EBITDA less tax)AUDmFY2024A: -15,675,971 AUDFY2025A: -13,225,929 AUD(15.7)(13.2)
Capex: development, sustaining and PP&E (forecast: DCF)AUDmFY2024A: -374,759 AUDFY2025A: -2,168,111 AUD(0.4)(2.2)
Free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex)AUDmFY2024A: -16,050,730 AUDFY2025A: -15,394,040 AUD(16.1)(15.4)
Balance sheet
BorrowingsAUDm0.00.0
Cash and cash equivalents (reported, year end)AUDmFY2024A: 18,043,388 AUDFY2025A: 24,577,181 AUD18.024.6
Net debt (negative = net cash)AUDmFY2024A: -18,043,388 AUDFY2025A: -24,577,181 AUD(18.0)(24.6)
Per share
Shares on issue (year end)m sharesFY2024A: 496,701,213 sharesFY2025A: 562,827,818 shares496.7562.8
Basic earnings per shareAUD/shareFY2024A: -0.04 AUD/shareFY2025A: -0.03 AUD/share(0.04)(0.03)
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY2024A: -9.85 xFY2025A: -12.90 x(9.9)(12.9)
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY2024A: -12.67 xFY2025A: -16.33 x(12.7)(16.3)
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY2024A: -0.07 fractionFY2025A: -0.07 fraction-6.9%-6.6%
EBITDA margin%——
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY2024A: 0.93 xFY2025A: 1.66 x0.91.7

KPI history

Operating metrics

Source values by period
Operating metric source table4
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Cash and cash equivalents, 31 Dec 2025CompanyFY2025Point In Time24,577,181 AUDReported
Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Jun 2026Company1H2026Point In Time17,498,772 AUDReported
Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Sep 2026Company3Q2026Point In Time11,068,000 AUDReported
Borrowings, 30 Jun 2026 (none drawn)Company1H2026Point In Time0 AUDReported
Company guidance3
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
First Concentrate Sales Under Offtake Contracts (Year)jaguar-nickelH1 20292,0292,029 yearCurrent
Pre Production CAPEX Incl. Pre Strip And Contingency (Jvep)jaguar-nickelconstruction (study)379.6379.6 USD millionCurrent
Average Annual Nickel Production, Life Of Mine (Jvep)jaguar-nickelLOM 15 years18,70018,700 t Ni/yrCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

4 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-10-30Ann. 2026-10-28RaisingA$17.8M41.9M—Completed—
2026-11-03Ann. 2026-10-28RaisingA$17.8M41.9M—Completed—
2026-10-28RaisingCtm Ordinary Fully PaidA$21.4M50.3MA$0.425AnnouncedTranche 2 subscriptions of US$7.5m each by Glencore and CNGR, conditional on shareholder approval, FID and (CNGR) ODI approval; sunset 31 January 2027.Max 50.3M · Until 2027-01-31 · Holder approval required
2025-09-15Ann. 2025-08-14RaisingA$23.1M64.1M—Completed—

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Complete As Disclosed · as of 2026-11-06

Arrangements announced to 6 Nov 2026 and disclosed in the FY2025 accounts and the quarterly tenement table. No commodity or FX hedges are disclosed. The earlier Glencore offtake (16 Mar 2026) is confirmed binding on 12 Oct 2026 but its original announcement is not in the file set.

Binding offtake (announced 16 March 2026, confirmed binding 12 October 2026) for about 20,000 t a year of high-grade concentrate; estimated value US$450m over five years. Glencore may terminate if first shipment is not made by the end of 2029.

Offtake · Active
Counterparties
Glencore AG (subsidiary)
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-03-16; no end date stated
Key terms
Minimum volume: 20,000 dry t concentrate a year
Pricing: LME cash settlement nickel with variable payability; copper and cobalt payabilities
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Binding five-year offtake for a minimum 100,000 t of concentrate (20,000 t a year), with alternating additional parcels (about 60,000 t over the contracts). Pricing LME-referenced; termination if no shipment by end 2029.

Offtake · Active
Counterparties
CNGR Advanced Material subsidiary
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-10-28; no end date stated
Key terms
Minimum volume: 20,000 dry t concentrate a year
Share of production: 25 % of first five years
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

US$20m strategic equity in two tranches at A$0.425 (5% premium to 20-day VWAP), tied to the offtake.

Strategic Partnership · Conditional
Counterparties
Glencore AG (subsidiary)
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
2026-10-30 to 2027-01-31
Key terms
Tranche 1 (received): 17,808,805 AUD
Tranche 2 (conditional): 10,685,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

US$20m strategic equity in two tranches; tranche 2 requires Chinese Outbound Direct Investment approval (determination 13 Nov 2026) as well as shareholder approval and FID.

Strategic Partnership · Conditional
Counterparties
CNGR Advanced Material subsidiary (Hong Kong)
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
2026-10-30 to 2027-01-31
Key terms
Tranche 1 (received): 17,791,061 AUD
Tranche 2 (conditional): 10,685,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Combined royalties of 5.8% of revenue less transport (LOM US$254m at study prices), modelled in the cash flows.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Vale S.A. · Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) · Government of Brazil (CFEM)
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Vale royalty: 2 % of gross revenue less transport
BNDES royalty: 1.8 % of gross revenue less transport
CFEM (statutory): 2 % of gross revenue less transport
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Regional income tax concession applied for the full Jaguar life in the study; the base case keeps it, the bear case assumes the headline 34% from year 11.

Other · Active
Counterparties
SUDAM · State of Pará
Applies to
Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project · Nickel
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Income tax rate under SUDAM regime: 15.25 %
Pará nickel incentives: 0 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Rio Novo tenement transferred on execution with staged vendor payments and success-based milestones. Not valued separately; immaterial to the stock value at the scale of the vendor payments.

Earn In · Active
Counterparties
Ore Investments Ltda
Applies to
Boi Novo and Rio Novo copper-gold exploration · Copper
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2025-10-29; no end date stated
Key terms
Execution payment: 42,500 AUD
Vendor payments: 255,000 AUD
Milestone payments: 3,400,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

10% interest in EPM14233 (Mt Isa) after a farm-out to Summit Resources, which has earned 90% and sold 80% of its interest to Aeon Metals (72% total). Not valued.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
Summit Resources (Aust) · Aeon Metals
Applies to
Company-wide
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.