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2026-11-06
◂ Monitor MM8 ASX

Medallion Metals Limited

Construction · Gold · AU Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · mm8-20261104t223134-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$0.38
1D
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1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
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Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$352.7M
EV
A$256.3M
Cash
A$96.9M
Debt
A$0

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash A$96.9M2026-06-30: 53,889,247 A$2026-09-30: 96,853,000 A$ Construction Funded
Debt A$0FY2025A: 2,916,410FY2026A: 0.00 Net cash A$96.9M
Basic shares 928.3MFY2025A: 508,645,690FY2026A: 797,137,354 2026-08-27
Runway Construction Funded Construction funding is in place: unrestricted cash A$96.9m at 30 Sep 2026 plus the undrawn Trafigura facility of A$77m (committed, not counted as undrawn in 5B item 7.5) against a September-quarter net burn of A$14.2m that rises during construction. Runway in quarters is not meaningful until the construction draw profile is known.

Liquidity

Financial position

Company reports about A$175m available liquidity after the A$60m placement (5B page 5). Unrestricted cash is A$96.9m; the facility is conditional on drawdown and is expected H2 2026. Remaining pre-production capital is about A$124m (FS A$138m less spend to 30 Sep 2026), and Macmahon underground mining (about A$240m over three years) and GR Engineering EPC (A$50m) are contracted or awarded and not yet fully paid.

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
928.3M
Fully diluted
992.6M

797,137,354 ordinary shares at 30 Jun 2026 (AR note 17); +125,000,000 placement shares quoted 27 Aug 2026 and about 6.1m other issues to 928,262,354 (2A part 4.1). Fully diluted adds 32,221,000 unlisted options (2A part 4.2, all treated as exercised; exercise proceeds of A$1.125m are added to the bridge) and an estimated 32,083,333 Trafigura warrants (25% x A$77m / assumed A$0.60 strike). No Trafigura warrant strike is in the documents yet.

Security classes8
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
MM8AK unlisted options exercise nilOption2.6M—2027-11-26
MM8AO unlisted options exercise $0.075Option4MA$0.0752027-09-30
MM8AQ unlisted options exercise nilOption4M—2028-04-30
MM8AS unlisted options exercise nilOption9M—2029-06-26
MM8AR unlisted options exercise nilOption6.3M—2028-07-16
MM8AL unlisted options exercise nilOption846K—2027-11-26
MM8AP unlisted options exercise $0.15Option5.5MA$0.152028-02-07
Trafigura warrants, estimated: 25% of A$77m commitment divided by an assumed A$0.60 strike (strike is 40% premium to 5-day VWAP, not yet fixed)Other32.1MA$0.6—

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY2025AAFY2026AA
Profit and loss
Revenue / operating incomeAUDmFY2025A: 1,111,527 AUDFY2026A: 1,315,714 AUD1.11.3
Operating costs (actuals: total expenses; forecast: mine opex, royalties, corporate overhead)AUDmFY2025A: 7,135,805 AUDFY2026A: 20,391,467 AUD7.120.4
EBITDA (actuals: operating result before finance items)AUDmFY2025A: -6,024,278 AUDFY2026A: -19,075,753 AUD(6.0)(19.1)
Net profit after tax (attributable)AUDmFY2025A: -6,126,739 AUDFY2026A: -18,559,837 AUD(6.1)(18.6)
Cash flow
Operating cash flowAUDmFY2025A: -5,017,331 AUDFY2026A: -13,115,061 AUD(5.0)(13.1)
Capex (actuals: PP&E, mine development, capitalised E&E; forecast: pre-production and sustaining plus non-sustaining)AUDmFY2025A: 4,526,482 AUDFY2026A: 16,007,306 AUD4.516.0
Free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex, unlevered)AUDmFY2025A: -9,543,813 AUDFY2026A: -29,122,367 AUD(9.5)(29.1)
Trafigura facility interest (9% on opening balance; analyst rate)AUDm0.00.0
Free cash flow after facility interestAUDmFY2025A: -9,543,813 AUDFY2026A: -29,122,367 AUD(9.5)(29.1)
Balance sheet
Cash (unrestricted, period end)AUDmFY2025A: 9,389,750 AUDFY2026A: 53,889,247 AUD9.453.9
Debt (facility balance, period end)AUDmFY2025A: 2,916,410 AUDFY2026A: 0.00 AUD2.90.0
Net debt (actuals; negative = net cash)AUDmFY2025A: -6,473,340 AUDFY2026A: -53,889,247 AUD(6.5)(53.9)
Book equityAUDmFY2025A: 23,930,360 AUDFY2026A: 86,271,495 AUD23.986.3
Per share
Ordinary shares at period endm sharesFY2025A: 508,645,690 sharesFY2026A: 797,137,354 shares508.6797.1
Loss per share (period-end count)AUD/shareFY2025A: -0.01 AUD/shareFY2026A: -0.02 AUD/share(0.01)(0.02)
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY2025A: -43.31 xFY2026A: -13.68 x(43.3)(13.7)
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY2025A: -58.33 xFY2026A: -19.26 x(58.3)(19.3)
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY2025A: -0.03 fractionFY2026A: -0.08 fraction-2.7%-8.1%
EBITDA margin%FY2025A: -5.42 fractionFY2026A: -14.50 fraction-542.0%-1449.8%
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY2025A: 1.07 xFY2026A: 2.83 x1.12.8

KPI history

Operating metrics

Source values by period
Operating metric source table5
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Camp revenue (no gold sales)CompanyFY2026Year1,308,804 AUDReported
Cash and cash equivalentsCompany30 Jun 2026Point In Time53,889,247 AUDReported
Unrestricted bank balancesCompanySep 2026 quarterPoint In Time96,853,000 AUDReported
Net cash used in operating activities (appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanySep 2026 quarterQuarter-10,899,000 AUDReported
Results from operating activities (statutory, before finance items; not EBITDA)CompanyFY2026Year-19,075,753 AUDSource Derived
Company guidance5
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Start Of Gold Processing At Cosmic Boy Under The Early Production Strategyforrestania-explorationOct 2026—— dateCurrent
Commissioning On Kundip Ore At Cosmic Boy, Targetrgp-kmc-undergroundQ2 CY2027—— dateCurrent
Steady State Production Forecastrgp-kmc-undergroundH2 CY2027—— dateCurrent
Life Of Mine Gold Equivalent Production (Fs Base Case)rgp-kmc-underground5.7 years LOM416,000416,000 oz AuEqCurrent
Annual Gold Equivalent Production (Fs, Average)rgp-kmc-undergroundLOM average77,00077,000 oz AuEq/yrCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

3 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-08-27Ann. 2026-08-20RaisingOrdinary Fully PaidA$60M125MA$0.48CompletedSingle-tranche institutional placement of A$60m at A$0.48 (125,000,000 shares), quoted 27 Aug 2026 (2A); cash received in the September quarter.Max 125M
2026-02-17DebtA$77M——Announced—
2026-02-27Ann. 2025-12-15RaisingOrdinary Fully PaidA$55M166.7MA$0.33CompletedA$55m two-tranche placement at A$0.33. Tranche 1 completed in FY26 (AR note 17); tranche 2 approved at the 27 Jan 2026 GM.Max 166.7M · Holder approval required

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Complete As Disclosed · as of 2026-11-04

Arrangements disclosed in the FY26 Annual Report, the FID and Trafigura announcements and the September 2026 quarterly; live arrangements are those executed or agreed and not expired.

US$50m (A$77m) prepayment facility executed Feb 2026; drawdown expected H2 2026 subject to conditions. Modelled as funding, not in the unlevered DCF; the 25% warrant coverage is a dilution item.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Trafigura Pte Ltd
Applies to
Ravensthorpe Gold Project - Kundip Mining Centre underground with Cosmic Boy processing · Gold · Copper
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2026-02-17; no end date stated
Key terms
Facility amount: 50,000,000 USD
Tenor: 4 years
Repayment: offtake deductions or cash
Pricing: 1-month USD SOFR plus margin
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Warrants to Trafigura are dilutive; estimated at 32.1m shares at an assumed A$0.60 strike. Treated in the fully diluted share count, not as a cash flow.

Other · Announced
Counterparties
Trafigura Pte Ltd
Applies to
Ravensthorpe Gold Project - Kundip Mining Centre underground with Cosmic Boy processing · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2025-10-27; no end date stated
Key terms
Warrant coverage: 25 pct
Strike: 1.4 x 5-day VWAP
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Concentrate sold to Trafigura; modelled through the FS net smelter return (after TC/RC and payabilities), so no separate line.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Trafigura Pte Ltd
Applies to
Ravensthorpe Gold Project - Kundip Mining Centre underground with Cosmic Boy processing · Copper · Gold
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-02-17; no end date stated
Key terms
Term: 7 years
Pricing: market-based
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Gold dore sales agreement; modelled through the same realised price as concentrate.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Trafigura Pte Ltd
Applies to
Ravensthorpe Gold Project - Kundip Mining Centre underground with Cosmic Boy processing · Gold
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-02-17; no end date stated
Key terms
Product: gold dore
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Toll processing agreement for a minimum of 200kt of third-party ore to start the Cosmic Boy plant before Ravensthorpe ore arrives. Not in the FS: treated as upside, not modelled.

Tolling Or Processing · Active
Counterparties
Third-party ore supplier (not named in extract)
Applies to
Forrestania Gold Project exploration (Lounge Lizard, Teddy Bear, 53 regional targets) · Gold
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-09-30; no end date stated
Key terms
Minimum tonnes: 200,000 t
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Deferred consideration royalty to IGO on future production from acquired FGP tenements; contingent on reserves, no value attributed by the company. Not triggered by KMC ore.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
IGO Limited
Applies to
Forrestania Gold Project exploration (Lounge Lizard, Teddy Bear, 53 regional targets) · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2026-02-27; no end date stated
Key terms
NSR royalty: 1.5 pct
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Preferred underground mining contractor for KMC (about A$240m over three years, start Q4 CY2026). Unit cost check: about A$167/t over the first three years against the FS underground mining cost of A$120/t (see valuation).

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Macmahon Holdings
Applies to
Ravensthorpe Gold Project - Kundip Mining Centre underground with Cosmic Boy processing · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Contract value: 240,000,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

EPC for Cosmic Boy refurbishment (A$50m); its cost sits in the FS capital (A$49m for CBC) and the remaining pre-production capital.

Other · Active
Counterparties
GR Engineering Services
Applies to
Forrestania Gold Project exploration (Lounge Lizard, Teddy Bear, 53 regional targets) · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2026-07-01; no end date stated
Key terms
EPC contract: 50,000,000 AUD
Progress: 30 pct
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.