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2026-11-06
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Hot Chili Limited

PFS Developer · Copper · Gold · CL Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · hch-20261104t223112-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$1.19
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—
Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$241.5M
EV
A$212.2M
Cash
A$29.2M
Debt
A$0

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash A$29.2M2025-06-30: 5,189,090 A$2026-06-30: 24,947,836 A$2026-09-30: 29,249,000 A$ Finite
Debt A$0 Net cash A$29.2M
Basic shares 202.9M 2026-09-30
Runway 1.8 quarters Cash A$29.25m over the September quarter's operating and investing outflows of A$16.26m (operating -2.61m, tenements -3.37m, PP&E -0.14m, exploration -10.14m), excluding the A$20.44m OR receipt, gives about 1.8 quarters. Appendix 5B item 8.7 gives 2.3 quarters on a narrower basis that excludes tenement and PP&E payments. Excludes the capex needed to build Costa Fuego.

Liquidity

Financial position

Cash of A$29.2m and no debt at 30 Sep 2026 fund under two quarters of current spending on that basis. The US$1.27bn pre-start capex is not funded; the company is running a strategic partnering process with BMO Capital Markets, so project finance and equity are not committed.

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
202.9M
Fully diluted
209.3M

Ordinary shares rose from 151,606,305 (30 Jun 2025) to 202,686,033 (30 Jun 2026) on the Aug 2025 entitlement offer (23,648,329 at A$0.60), the Feb 2026 placement (24,242,425 at A$1.65) and rights exercises; 202,901,656 at 30 Sep 2026 after further rights exercises. Options fell by 1,914,000 on 25 Jul 2026 expiry, leaving 1,212,121. Fully diluted = ordinary plus all listed unlisted instruments, undiluted for exercise price.

Security classes4
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Ordinary fully paid sharesOrdinary Share202.9M——
Unlisted options exercisable at A$2.145, expiring 12 Aug 2028Option1.2MA$2.1452028-08-12
Performance rights (unlisted)Performance Right4.7M——
Service rights (unlisted, vested)Other420.3K——

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY2025AAFY2026AA
Operations
Copper production (100%)kt Cu0.000.00
Profit and loss
RevenueAUDm0.00.0
Operating costs incl. royalties (ex D&A)AUDmFY2025A: 11,894,999 AUDFY2026A: 10,912,496 AUD11.910.9
EBITDAAUDmFY2025A: -11,894,999 AUDFY2026A: -10,912,496 AUD(11.9)(10.9)
Depreciation and amortisationAUDmFY2025A: 178,875 AUDFY2026A: 130,848 AUD0.20.1
Net profit after tax, attributable (forecast before interest)AUDmFY2025A: -11,137,547 AUDFY2026A: -10,111,664 AUD(11.1)(10.1)
Cash flow
Operating cash flow (after tax)AUDmFY2025A: -6,974,393 AUDFY2026A: -8,372,036 AUD(7.0)(8.4)
Capex incl. sustaining, growth and closureAUDmFY2025A: 23,993,752 AUDFY2026A: 23,251,726 AUD24.023.3
Free cash flow (before project funding)AUDmFY2025A: -30,968,145 AUDFY2026A: -31,623,762 AUD(31.0)(31.6)
Balance sheet
Cash, unfunded forecastAUDmFY2025A: 5,189,090 AUDFY2026A: 24,947,836 AUD5.224.9
Debt (no project debt modelled)AUDm0.00.0
Net debt (negative = net cash)AUDmFY2025A: -5,189,090 AUDFY2026A: -24,947,836 AUD(5.2)(24.9)
Per share
Ordinary shares on issue (year end; forecast at 30 Sep 2026 count)m sharesFY2025A: 151,606,305 sharesFY2026A: 202,686,033 shares151.6202.7
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY2025A: -19.37 xFY2026A: -21.12 x(19.4)(21.1)
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY2025A: -23.32 xFY2026A: -25.68 x(23.3)(25.7)
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY2025A: -0.12 fractionFY2026A: -0.12 fraction-11.9%-12.2%
EBITDA margin%——
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY2025A: 0.44 xFY2026A: 2.29 x0.42.3

KPI history

Operating metrics

Source values by period
Operating metric source table3
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Jun 2025CompanyFY2025 year endPoint In Time5,189,090 AUDReported
Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Jun 2026CompanyFY2026 year endPoint In Time24,947,836 AUDReported
Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Sep 2026CompanySep 2026 quarterPoint In Time29,249,000 AUDReported
Company guidance2
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Eia 1A And 1B Submissioncosta-fuegoQ2 2027—— dateCurrent
Maiden La Verde Mineral Resource Estimatela-verdeLater in calendar 2026—— dateCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

2 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-02-13Ann. 2026-02-02RaisingA$39.7M24.2M—Completed—
2025-09-05Ann. 2025-08-05RaisingA$14.2M23.6M—Completed—

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Complete As Disclosed · as of 2026-09-30

Arrangements in the FY2026 annual report (notes 17-18, 27 and the tenement schedule), the 7 July 2026 OR amendment and the PFS and MROR footnotes; the strategic partnering process has no signed arrangement yet and is not listed.

1% payable copper and 3% payable gold net smelter return royalty over the Sellers' share of Costa Fuego, with a change-of-control buyback before the fourth anniversary of closing. The PFS cost base includes the royalty (US$180m LOM).

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
OR Royalties Inc. (formerly Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd)
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface · Copper · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
NSR on payable copper, Sellers' share: 1 %
NSR on payable gold, Sellers' share: 3 %
Royalty consideration received, original: 15 USD m
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

The A&R agreement adds La Verde to the OR royalty footprint for US$15m, takes the royalty to an equivalent 1.12% CuEq NSR across payable metals, and gives OR a right of first offer on future royalties and streams. Closed in the September 2026 quarter.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
OR Royalties Inc. (formerly Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd)
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface · La Verde copper-gold porphyry discovery · Copper · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Additional royalty consideration received: 15 USD m
Total royalty consideration under OR arrangement: 30 USD m
Change-of-control buyback reduced royalty: 0.5 % copper NSR
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

CMP holds 20% of the Productora holding company (SMEA) and 20% of Huasco Water, funding its share of contributions (CMP reimbursement of A$1.29m in FY2026). The company's 89.6% look-through interest in Costa Fuego reflects this.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
Compania Minera del Pacifico S.A. (CMP)
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface · Huasco Water (Aguas para El Huasco SpA), seawater supply to Costa Fuego and regional desalination · Copper · Gold
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
CMP interest in Sociedad Minera El Aguila SpA (Productora): 20 %
CMP interest in Aguas para El Huasco SpA: 20 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Frontera holds an option to earn 100% of San Antonio; the company paid US$2m in the Sep 2026 quarter and committed A$25.4m of option payments.

Earn In · Active
Counterparties
San Antonio tenement optionor (not named in filings read)
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface · Copper · Gold
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Remaining option payments committed: 25.43 AUD m
Within one year: 4.8 AUD m
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

A memorandum of understanding for a 20-year seawater supply of up to 500 L/s to Costa Fuego; no binding offtake yet.

Offtake · Announced
Counterparties
Unnamed foundation off-taker (MOU)
Applies to
Huasco Water (Aguas para El Huasco SpA), seawater supply to Costa Fuego and regional desalination
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Seawater supply under MOU: 500 L/s
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

VAT refunds of A$31.9m recovered by Sociedad Minera El Aguila and La Frontera are repayable if the export commitment is not met; the La Frontera extension runs to 31 Dec 2026 and a new extension is required.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Chilean tax authority
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Through 2026-12-31; start date not stated
Key terms
Accumulated VAT refunds at risk: 31.89 AUD m
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

1.5% NSR on the Purisima 1/8 mining tenement held by La Frontera; included in the PFS royalty cost base (US$9m LOM).

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Purisima tenement royalty holder
Applies to
Costa Fuego copper-gold project (Cortadera, Productora, Alice, San Antonio) incl. the Huasco Water supply interface · Copper
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
NSR on Purisima 1/8 tenement: 1.5 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.