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2026-11-06
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Arafura Rare Earths Limited

Construction · Rare Earths · AU Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · aru-20261031t202835-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$0.145
1D
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1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
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Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$880.8M
EV
A$-3M
Cash
A$885.2M
Debt
A$0

Portfolio detail

Assets

2 assets

Core asset

Nolans Rare Earths Project

AU

Construction100% ownedRare Earths

Final investment decision taken 21 May 2026; early works and site mobilisation under way since September 2026; main construction subject to long-form project finance and completion of the EFA and KfW subscriptions.

Developer · Construction
Study
Definitive feasibility study (2019), updated mining study (2020), feasibility update (2021) and project update (2022); economics restated 17 Jun 2026
Post-tax NPV (study prices, attributable)
US$1.9bd
NPV restated at our deck (attributable)
Locked
IRR
18.1%s
Initial capex (100%)
US$1.2bs
Capital intensity
US$268,243/(t/yr)d
LoM AISC
A$65,723/ts
Mine life
38.0 yrss
Published study economicsIssuer or study metrics
NPVUS$1.9B8% discount
IRR18.1%Published return
Initial capexUS$1.2BPublished capital estimate
Operating cost46.4USD/kg NdPr oxide
NPVUS$2.3B8% discount
IRR20.1%Published return
Initial capexUS$1.2BPublished capital estimate
Operating cost46.4USD/kg NdPr oxide

Base case, ungeared, after tax, real prices to 2040 then flat, 38-year life, 8% discount rate

Incentive case (CRU incentive and Adamas high blend), same capital and costs

Resources & reserves7
TypeCategoryQuantityGradeContained mineralsDate
Mineral ResourceMeasured4.9 Mt3.2% TREO, 13% P2O5, 26.1% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2017-06-07
Mineral ResourceIndicated30 Mt2.7% TREO, 12% P2O5, 26.4% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2017-06-07
Mineral ResourceInferred21 Mt2.3% TREO, 10% P2O5, 26.5% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2017-06-07
Mineral ResourceTotal56 Mt2.6% TREO, 11% P2O5, 26.4% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2017-06-07
Ore ReserveProved5 Mt3.0% TREO, 13% P2O5, 26.2% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2020-03-16
Ore ReserveProbable24.6 Mt2.8% TREO, 13% P2O5, 26.5% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2020-03-16
Ore ReserveTotal29.5 Mt2.9% TREO, 13% P2O5, 26.4% NdPr enrichmentRare Earths2020-03-16
Tenements2
nolans-mlsGranted— None · No expiry supplied
nolans-empGranted— None · No expiry supplied
Milestones5
  1. Final investment decision

    Achieved · High materiality

  2. Construction start (early works and site mobilisation)

    Achieved · High materiality

  3. Ground-breaking ceremony

    Achieved · Medium materiality

  4. Senior finance contractual close

    Pending · High materiality

  5. First production (37-month construction from September 2026)

    Pending · High materiality

Permits & approvals1
PermitJurisdictionStatusExpiryCritical path
Mine management plan and Commonwealth/NT approvals (EML transition in progress)Northern Territory and CommonwealthGranted—Yes
Economic studies2
StudyStageStatusDateSummary
Nolans project economics clarification (base and incentive cases)Updated FeasibilityCurrent2026-06-17Restates NPV8 after tax US$1,859m (base) and US$2,327m (incentive), IRR 18.1% and 20.1%, capital US$1,191m, 38-year life.
Nolans project update (November 2022)FeedSuperseded2022-11-11Production target and FEED-based capital estimate that the 2026 economics update compares against (NPV8 US$1,693m).

Other

Aileron-Reynolds, Bonya and Jervois tenements

AU

Early ExplorerRare Earths

Regional exploration licences; Bonya and Jervois are 60% joint ventures with Thor Mining; renewal of EL32167 was rejected in July 2026 and its A$0.27m carrying value impaired.

Tenements3
el-aileronGranted— None · No expiry supplied
el-bonyaGranted— None · No expiry supplied
el-jervoisRenewal Pending— None · No expiry supplied

d derivedr our researchg guidances study forecastm daily marketNo marker: as reported— / NM missing or not meaningful (hover for why)