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2026-11-06
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Arafura Rare Earths Limited

Construction · Rare Earths · AU Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · aru-20261031t202835-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$0.145
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
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Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$880.8M
EV
A$-3M
Cash
A$885.2M
Debt
A$0

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash A$885.2M2024-12-31: 44,858,000 A$2025-03-31: 37,238,000 A$2025-06-30: 27,178,000 A$2025-09-30: 89,504,000 A$2025-12-31: 571,347,000 A$2026-03-31: 561,249,000 A$2026-06-30: 723,241,000 A$2026-09-30: 885,189,000 A$ Construction Funded
Debt A$0 Net cash A$885.2M
Basic shares 6.1BFY2025A: 2,464,328,691FY2026A: 5,355,174,672 2026-10-27
Runway Construction Funded Cash of A$160.2m plus A$725m term deposits against construction spend funded by committed equity, notes and conditional debt; Appendix 5B cash-only runway of 11.0 quarters understates liquidity.

Liquidity

Financial position

A$885m of cash and term deposits (A$160m cash, A$725m 3-12 month deposits), no borrowings, and A$430m of binding but conditional equity and notes; senior debt of US$775m plus US$280m standby facilities is not yet at contractual close.

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
6.1B
Fully diluted
6.1B

Shares rose from 2,464.3m (30 Jun 2025) to 5,355.2m (30 Jun 2026) through placements at A$0.19, A$0.28 and A$0.26 plus SPPs and compensation shares, then to 6,074.6m after the 9 Jul 2026 tranche, a July SPP and incentive vesting (6,072.5m at 17 Aug 2026; 6,073.7m on 21 Sep; 6,074.6m on 27 Oct). About 940m cornerstone shares at A$0.2447 and 200 convertible notes are not yet issued.

Security classes4
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Fully paid ordinary sharesOrdinary Share6.1B——
Performance rights (ARUAD)Performance Right32.6M——
Unlisted options (ARUAC)Option197K——
NRFC convertible notes (unissued, A$1m face each)Convertible200A$0.476—

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY2025AAFY2026AA
Profit and loss
Revenue: NdPr oxideAUDm0.00.0
Revenue: SEG/HRE oxide and phosphoric acidAUDm0.00.0
RevenueAUDm0.00.0
Operating costs including royaltiesAUDm0.00.0
Corporate, project development and share-based costsAUDmFY2025A: 31,978,000 AUDFY2026A: 56,766,000 AUD32.056.8
EBITDAAUDmFY2025A: -31,978,000 AUDFY2026A: -56,766,000 AUD(32.0)(56.8)
Depreciation and amortisationAUDmFY2025A: 677,376 AUDFY2026A: 481,538 AUD0.70.5
Net interest and other incomeAUDmFY2025A: 13,413,039 AUDFY2026A: 16,161,143 AUD13.416.2
TaxAUDm0.00.0
NPATAUDmFY2025A: -19,242,337 AUDFY2026A: -41,086,395 AUD(19.2)(41.1)
Cash flow
Operating cash flowAUDmFY2025A: -34,917,000 AUDFY2026A: -19,538,000 AUD(34.9)(19.5)
Capital expenditureAUDmFY2025A: 3,007,719 AUDFY2026A: 9,501,515 AUD3.09.5
Free cash flow (after interest)AUDmFY2025A: -37,924,719 AUDFY2026A: -29,039,515 AUD(37.9)(29.0)
Equity raised net of costsAUDmFY2025A: 23,207,000 AUDFY2026A: 725,533,000 AUD23.2725.5
Debt drawn net of repayments and lease paymentsAUDmFY2025A: -531,000 AUDFY2026A: -270,600 AUD(0.5)(0.3)
Other (term deposit and deposit movements, FX)AUDmFY2025A: 256,719 AUDFY2026A: -159,885 AUD0.3(0.2)
Net change in cash and term depositsAUDmFY2025A: -14,992,000 AUDFY2026A: 696,063,000 AUD(15.0)696.1
Balance sheet
Cash and term depositsAUDmFY2025A: 27,178,000 AUDFY2026A: 723,241,000 AUD27.2723.2
Debt (senior, notes and capitalised interest)AUDm0.00.0
Net debt (cash)AUDmFY2025A: -27,178,000 AUDFY2026A: -723,241,000 AUD(27.2)(723.2)
Per share
Shares on issuem sharesFY2025A: 2,464,328,691 sharesFY2026A: 5,355,174,672 shares2,464.35,355.2
Earnings per shareAUD/shareFY2025A: -0.01 AUD/shareFY2026A: -0.01 AUD/share(0.01)(0.01)
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY2025A: -0.85 xFY2026A: -0.48 x(0.9)(0.5)
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY2025A: -47.35 xFY2026A: -22.18 x(47.4)(22.2)
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY2025A: -0.04 fractionFY2026A: -0.03 fraction-4.2%-3.2%
EBITDA margin%——
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY2025A: 0.85 xFY2026A: 12.74 x0.812.7

KPI history

Operating metrics · Company

Cash and term deposits at quarter end shown
0247,852,920495,705,840743,558,760991,411,680Dec 2024: 44,858,000 AUDDec 2024Mar 2025: 37,238,000 AUDMar 2025Jun 2025: 27,178,000 AUDJun 2025Sep 2025: 89,504,000 AUDSep 2025Dec 2025: 571,347,000 AUDDec 2025Mar 2026: 561,249,000 AUDMar 2026Jun 2026: 723,241,000 AUDJun 2026Sep 2026: 885,189,000 AUDSep 2026
MetricUnitTrendDec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026Sep 2026
Cash and term deposits at quarter endAUDDec 2024: 44,858,000 AUDMar 2025: 37,238,000 AUDJun 2025: 27,178,000 AUDSep 2025: 89,504,000 AUDDec 2025: 571,347,000 AUDMar 2026: 561,249,000 AUDJun 2026: 723,241,000 AUDSep 2026: 885,189,000 AUD44,858,00037,238,00027,178,00089,504,000571,347,000561,249,000723,241,000885,189,000
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)AUDDec 2024: -9,497,000 AUDMar 2025: -7,329,000 AUDJun 2025: -8,580,000 AUDSep 2025: -4,347,000 AUDDec 2025: -5,038,000 AUDMar 2026: -3,696,000 AUDJun 2026: -6,458,000 AUDSep 2026: -14,345,000 AUD(9,497,000)(7,329,000)(8,580,000)(4,347,000)(5,038,000)(3,696,000)(6,458,000)(14,345,000)
Operating metric source table16
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyDec 2024 quarterPoint In Time44,858,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyMar 2025 quarterPoint In Time37,238,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyJun 2025 quarterPoint In Time27,178,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanySep 2025 quarterPoint In Time89,504,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyDec 2025 quarterPoint In Time571,347,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyMar 2026 quarterPoint In Time561,249,000 AUDReported
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanyJun 2026 quarterPoint In Time723,241,000 AUDSource Derived
Cash and term deposits at quarter endCompanySep 2026 quarterPoint In Time885,189,000 AUDSource Derived
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyDec 2024 quarterQuarter-9,497,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyMar 2025 quarterQuarter-7,329,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyJun 2025 quarterQuarter-8,580,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanySep 2025 quarterQuarter-4,347,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyDec 2025 quarterQuarter-5,038,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyMar 2026 quarterQuarter-3,696,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanyJun 2026 quarterQuarter-6,458,000 AUDReported
Net operating cash flow (Appendix 5B item 1.9)CompanySep 2026 quarterQuarter-14,345,000 AUDReported
Company guidance4
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Ndpr Oxide Steady State Average Productionnolansoperating years 3 to 334,4404,440 tpaCurrent
Pre Production Capital Cost (Us$, Incl Contingency And Escalation)nolansconstruction (37 months)1,191,000,0001,191,000,000 USDCurrent
Further Construction Tendersnolansnext six months from October 2026350,000,000350,000,000 AUDCurrent
Months Of Construction To First Productionnolansfrom September 20263737 monthsCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

5 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-07-09Ann. 2026-05-22RaisingOrdinary SharesA$350M1.3BA$0.26CompletedA$350m two-tranche placement at A$0.26: tranche 1 (675.1m shares) settled 29 May 2026 and tranche 2 (A$174.5m) on 9 Jul 2026, with an A$11.5m SPP.Max 1.3B
2026-05-12DebtConvertible NotesA$200M——AnnouncedA$200m NRFC subordinated convertible notes at 7.436% coupon, A$0.476 conversion price, estimated issue 28 Jan 2027.conversion price · Holder approval required
2026-04-01RaisingOrdinary SharesA$230M—A$0.245AnnouncedEFA (US$100m) and KfW for GRMF (EUR50m) subscriptions at A$0.2447 per share (issue about 940m shares), subject to conditions and a 1 Dec 2026 sunset date.Max 940M · Holder approval required
2025-12-12Ann. 2025-10-28RaisingOrdinary SharesA$475M1.7BA$0.28CompletedA$475m two-tranche placement at A$0.28 (440.6m shares 4 Nov 2025 and 1,255.9m shares 12 Dec 2025), plus an A$6.4m share purchase plan.Max 1.7B
2025-08-26Ann. 2025-08-20RaisingOrdinary SharesA$80M369.6MA$0.19CompletedA$80m placement tranche 1 at A$0.19 (369.6m shares) with tranche 2 of 51.4m shares settled 1 Oct 2025.Max 369.6M

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Complete As Disclosed · as of 2026-10-30

Offtake, funding, EPCM, power and royalty arrangements disclosed in the FID release, annual report, offtake releases and project economics update; counterparty names are no longer disclosed for new offtake. No commodity or FX hedges are disclosed.

Binding offtake for 1,500 tpa of NdPr oxide, subject to delivery of first product by sunset dates; prices include contract discounts and mechanisms during the first seven years.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Hyundai Motor and Kia
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Volume: 1,500 tpa NdPr oxide
Share of 3,570 tpa binding target: 42 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Extension of the existing offtake to 500 tpa with seaborne index pricing; KfW completion is conditional on this amendment.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Global wind turbine OEM (Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, as previously named)
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-09-18; no end date stated
Key terms
Volume: 500 tpa NdPr oxide
Term: 5 years
Pricing: seaborne index
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Binding offtake term for 300 tpa from the Luxembourg-based trader.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Traxys Europe S.A.
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Volume: 300 tpa NdPr oxide
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Binding offtake ramping to 850 tpa with associated heavy rare earths, priced on a seaborne index.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Global trading company in the US Project Vault initiative (Traxys North America term sheet of 13 May 2026)
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-10-12; no end date stated
Key terms
Volume at nameplate: 850 tpa NdPr oxide
Term: 5 years
Pricing: seaborne index
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Non-binding letter of support for CMSR support of up to 500 tpa; counts toward the 93% of target in the FID table but is not a contract.

Offtake · Announced
Counterparties
Export Finance Australia (Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve)
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-05-21; no end date stated
Key terms
Volume: 500 tpa NdPr oxide
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Government-agency cornerstone equity with information, offtake-oversight and board rights, inter-conditional with the other funding.

Strategic Partnership · Conditional
Counterparties
Export Finance Australia · KfW for the German Raw Materials Fund
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
From 2026-04-01; no end date stated
Key terms
Subscription: 230 AUD m
Issue price: 0.24 AUD/share
Sunset date: 2026-12-01
KfW board nomination: one director
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

A$200m convertible notes, issue estimated 28 Jan 2027 with maturity linked to the senior facilities.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
National Reconstruction Fund Corporation
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
From 2026-05-12; no end date stated
Key terms
Face value: 200 AUD m
Coupon: 7.44 % pa
Conversion price: 0.48 AUD/share
Ranking: subordinated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Conditional senior debt plus overrun and liquidity facilities awaiting long-form documents; offtake and equity completion are conditions precedent.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Export credit agencies and commercial lenders
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
From 2024-07-23; no end date stated
Key terms
Senior debt: 775 USD m
Cost overrun facility: 80 USD m
Standby liquidity facility: 200 USD m
Offtake condition: 80 % of planned production
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Hatch manages engineering, procurement and construction; the contract is EPCM rather than lump-sum so cost risk stays with Arafura.

Other · Active
Counterparties
Hatch
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2025-10-01; no end date stated
Key terms
Role: EPCM contractor
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Selected provider would fund and operate the gas-fired power station with phased solar and wind; its charges sit in study operating cost.

Other · Announced
Counterparties
Preferred build-own-operate power provider
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Plant: 44 x 1.5 MW gas engines and 41 steam boilers
Upfront payment: 5 AUD m
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Ad valorem royalty plus native title agreement payments modelled in the study.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Northern Territory Government and native title holders
Applies to
Nolans Rare Earths Project · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
From 2024-07-01; no end date stated
Key terms
NT ad valorem royalty: 2.5 % of revenue less transport
Average royalty cost over life of mine: 20 USD m pa
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.