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2026-11-06
◂ Monitor LOT ASX

Lotus Resources Limited

Ramping Producer · Uranium · MW · BW Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · lot-20261031t153936-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$0.18
1D
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1M
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YTD
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1Y
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Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$98.5M
EV
A$86.9M
Cash
A$57.4M
Debt
A$45.8M
1 newer ASX announcement not yet reflected in this valuation

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash A$57.4M2026-06-30: 30,185,667 A$2026-09-30: 57,400,000 A$ Finite
Debt A$45.8MFY2025A: 0.00FY2026A: 10,476,742 Net cash A$11.6M
Basic shares 547M 2026-09-30
Runway 0.98 quarters Cash A$57.4M at 30 Sep 2026 divided by the September quarter outflow of A$58.8M (operating A$45.2M plus investing A$13.6M, Appendix 5B). Excludes the conditional US$30M Mercuria prepayment and any receipts from the first sale.

Liquidity

Financial position

Cash of A$57.4M covers about one quarter at the September quarter burn; the business needs the Mercuria prepayment and first sales to fund operations without further equity or convertible funding. Debt is the drawn US$7.4M equipment facility (about A$10.8M) plus the A$35M convertible notes issued 9 Sep 2026.

Inventory composition1

Inventory carrying value A$46.5M at 30 June 2026 (annual report, balance sheet). The September quarter build is not separated in the documents read; the inaugural 145klb shipment is part of 159.5klb already accepted by Orano CE.

Uranium inventory and ROM stockpiles at 30 June 2026 (carrying value A$46.5M, incl. ex-Paladine and RoM)
A$46.5M carrying

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
547M
Fully diluted
615.8M

Fully diluted = 547,045,342 ordinary + 1,709,289 options + 765,818 performance rights + 66,287,879 warrants = 615,808,328. Options are counted in full, which is conservative because the A$3.45 options are out of the money at the reference price. The convertible notes are excluded because their conversion shares depend on a variable price; they are a claim on equity value, not counted as shares. Valuation (valuation.json) uses a treasury-method count of 548,911,750: ordinary shares plus nil-strike options (1,100,590) and performance rights (765,818). It excludes the A$3.45 options (608,699) and the A$0.85 warrants (66,287,879), which are out of the money at the valuation (per share A$0.14 probability-weighted, below both strikes), and the convertible notes, which are debt in the equity bridge.

Security classes5
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Fully paid ordinary sharesOrdinary Share547M——
Unlisted options (several strikes; A$3.45 and nil)Option1.7M——
Performance rights (expiry 30 Jun 2030)Performance Right765.8KA$02030-06-30
Detachable warrants issued to CVI (Heights-managed)Other66.3MA$0.852031-09-07
350 senior unsecured convertible notes, A$100,000 each, variable conversion price with A$0.11 floor (excluded from fully diluted count; conversion shares not determinable from the documents)Convertible350—2031-09-07

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY2025AAFY2026AA
Operations
Uranium produced (100% basis)Mlb U3O8FY2025A: 0.00 Mlb U3O8FY2026A: 0.33 Mlb U3O80.000.33
Unit costs
Operating cost per lb (A$, incl. fixed site cost)AUD/lb U3O8—277.2
Profit and loss
RevenueAUDm0.00.0
Operating costs incl. royaltiesAUDmFY2025A: 7,528,582 AUDFY2026A: 92,024,477 AUD7.592.0
EBITDAAUDmFY2025A: -7,528,582 AUDFY2026A: -92,024,477 AUD(7.5)(92.0)
Net loss after tax (total)AUDmFY2025A: -15,583,795 AUDFY2026A: -100,133,861 AUD(15.6)(100.1)
Cash flow
Operating cash flowAUDmFY2025A: -10,316,885 AUDFY2026A: -114,904,036 AUD(10.3)(114.9)
Capex (sustaining and growth)AUDmFY2025A: 63,396,517 AUDFY2026A: 68,890,301 AUD63.468.9
Free cash flowAUDmFY2025A: -73,713,402 AUDFY2026A: -183,794,337 AUD(73.7)(183.8)
Balance sheet
Cash and cash equivalentsAUDmFY2025A: 54,092,246 AUDFY2026A: 30,185,667 AUD54.130.2
BorrowingsAUDmFY2025A: 0.00 AUDFY2026A: 10,476,742 AUD0.010.5
Net debt (cash)AUDmFY2025A: -54,092,246 AUDFY2026A: -19,708,925 AUD(54.1)(19.7)
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY2025A: -11.90 xFY2026A: -0.97 x(11.9)(1.0)
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY2025A: -6.49 xFY2026A: -1.01 x(6.5)(1.0)
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY2025A: -0.73 fractionFY2026A: -1.82 fraction-72.8%-181.6%
EBITDA margin%——
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY2025A: 7.18 xFY2026A: 0.21 x7.20.2

KPI history

Operating metrics · Kayelekera Uranium Mine

Kayelekera uranium produced (100% mine basis) shown
043,65287,304130,956174,608June 2026: 155,900 lb U3O8June 2026September 2026: 101,800 lb U3O8September 2026
MetricUnitTrendJune 2026September 2026
Kayelekera uranium produced (100% mine basis)lb U3O8June 2026: 155,900 lb U3O8September 2026: 101,800 lb U3O8155,900101,800
Operating metric source table9
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
Kayelekera uranium produced (100% mine basis)KayelekeraJune 2026 quarterQuarter155,900 lb U3O8Reported
Kayelekera uranium produced (100% mine basis)KayelekeraSeptember 2026 quarterQuarter101,800 lb U3O8Reported
Kayelekera uranium produced FY2026 (100% mine basis)KayelekeraFY2026 (year to 30 June 2026)Year332,100 lb U3O8Reported
Kayelekera head gradeKayelekeraSeptember 2026 quarterQuarter803 ppm U3O8Reported
Kayelekera recovery (September quarter; 80% in September)KayelekeraSeptember 2026 quarterQuarter69 %Reported
Kayelekera ore milledKayelekeraSeptember 2026 quarterQuarter81,900 t oreReported
Kayelekera production costs (cash, A$43.2M; not AISC)KayelekeraSeptember 2026 quarterQuarter43,220,000 AUD production cost (total, not per lb)Reported
Cash and cash equivalentsCompany30 June 2026Point In Time30,185,667 AUDReported
Cash (excluding US$10.0M restricted)Company30 September 2026Point In Time57,400,000 AUDReported
Company guidance2
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Steady State Productionkayelekerafirst six years of production excluding ramp-up2,400,0002,400,000 lb U3O8 per yearCurrent
Monthly Production Targetkayelekeralate CY2026200,000200,000 lb U3O8 per monthCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

2 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-08-20Ann. 2026-07-23RaisingA$60.1M273.4M—Completed—
2026-09-09Ann. 2026-07-23DebtSenior Unsecured Convertible Notes With Detachable WarrantsA$35M350A$100,000CompletedA$35M, 350 notes issued to CVI Investments, Inc. (managed by Heights Capital Management) after shareholder approval on 2 Sep 2026, with 66,287,879 warrants at A$0.85. Up to five-year term; expiry 7 Sep 2031 per annual report (quarterly states 2029, treated as an error).Max 350 · Until 2031-09-07 · Holder approval required

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Partial · as of 2026-09-30

Arrangements identified in the documents read: Kayelekera royalties (half-year note), Mercuria marketing and prepayment (annual report, presentation) and contracted volumes to CY2029. Not an exhaustive contract review.

Uncapped 5% royalty on Kayelekera revenue to the Malawi Government; payable once sales begin.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Government of Malawi
Applies to
Kayelekera Uranium Mine · Uranium
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
royalty on revenue, uncapped: 5 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

3.5% royalty on revenue capped at A$5M to Paladin Energy.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Paladin Energy Limited
Applies to
Kayelekera Uranium Mine · Uranium
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
royalty on revenue, capped: 3.5 %
royalty cap: 5,000,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Uncapped 0.75% royalty on revenue to Power Resources Inc.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Power Resources Inc (Cameco subsidiary)
Applies to
Kayelekera Uranium Mine · Uranium
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
royalty on revenue, uncapped: 0.75 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

3.3Mlb contracted under fixed pricing out to CY2029; the company is renegotiating CY2026 delivery commitments to reduce exposure.

Offtake · Active
Counterparties
Existing utility customers (contracted volumes)
Applies to
Kayelekera Uranium Mine · Uranium
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Through 2029-12-31; start date not stated
Key terms
contracted volume at fixed pricing: 3.3 Mlb U3O8
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

30-month marketing of up to 3.0Mlb at market-linked pricing with a US$30M inventory-backed prepayment facility. Binding commitment letter after year end; definitive documents subject to conditions.

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
Mercuria Energy Trading S.A.
Applies to
Kayelekera Uranium Mine · Uranium
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
marketing volume: 3 Mlb U3O8
inventory-backed prepayment facility: 30,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.