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2026-11-06
◂ Monitor LYC ASX

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Producer · Rare Earths · AU · MY · BR Rating locked: sign in to view v8 · lyc-20261024t160312-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$12.31
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—
Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$12.4B
EV
A$11.6B
Cash
A$504.1M
Debt
A$119.7M
1 newer ASX announcement not yet reflected in this valuation

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-06-30
Cash A$504.1M2025-06-30: 166,490,000 A$2025-12-31: 745,658,000 A$2026-06-30: 504,128,000 A$ Self Funding
Debt A$119.7M Net cash A$384.4M
Basic shares 1B 2026-08-06
Runway Self Funding FY2026 OCF318.810m less PP&E/development178.268m gives positive140.542m FCF. Burn runway is not meaningful for this profitable operating producer.

Liquidity

Financial position

Reported cash504.128m plus short-term deposits704.971m; restricted security deposits79.996m excluded. Post-June cash is an explicit model estimate, not a reported balance. Existing lease218.655m and rehabilitation338.805m require separate payment calendars.

Inventory composition3

AUD240.809m carrying value. Physical product split/quantities and realizable values not disclosed; already embedded in operating working capital, no extra equitybridge uplift.

Raw materials and consumables
A$60.6M carrying
Work in progress
A$126.6M carrying
Finished goods
A$53.6M carrying

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
1B
Fully diluted
1B

Ordinary1006502578 plus4045602 performance rights gives1010548180. LS1873386 convertibles are treated as a dated debt claim because conversion price15.48 exceeds cutoff11.67; a conversion alternative is quantified. Conditional scheme63,344,637 shares enter only closing scenarios.

Security classes3
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Ordinary issued sharesOrdinary Share1B——
Existing performance rights, included in diluted ordinary-equivalent share basisPerformance Right4MA$0—
LS zero-coupon convertible note; out of money at cutoff, modeled as nominal maturity claim rather than automatic conversionConvertible1.9MA$15.482031-08-06

KPI history

Operating metrics · Mt Weld integrated rare earths business

NdPr oxide production shown
05821,1651,7472,330Q3FY2025: 1,509 t NdPrQ3FY2025Q4FY2025: 2,080 t NdPrQ4FY2025Q1FY2026: 2,003 t NdPrQ1FY2026Q2FY2026: 1,404 t NdPrQ2FY2026Q3FY2026: 1,996 t NdPrQ3FY2026Q4FY2026: 1,857 t NdPrQ4FY2026
MetricUnitTrendQ3FY2025Q4FY2025Q1FY2026Q2FY2026Q3FY2026Q4FY2026
NdPr oxide productiont NdPrQ3FY2025: 1,509 t NdPrQ4FY2025: 2,080 t NdPrQ1FY2026: 2,003 t NdPrQ2FY2026: 1,404 t NdPrQ3FY2026: 1,996 t NdPrQ4FY2026: 1,857 t NdPr1,5092,0802,0031,4041,9961,857
Total REO productiont REOQ3FY2025: 1,911 t REOQ4FY2025: 3,212 t REOQ1FY2026: 3,993 t REOQ2FY2026: 2,382 t REOQ3FY2026: 3,233 t REOQ4FY2026: 3,481 t REO1,9113,2123,9932,3823,2333,481
REO sales volumet REOQ3FY2025: 2,434 t REOQ4FY2025: 2,828 t REOQ1FY2026: 3,691 t REOQ2FY2026: 2,359 t REOQ3FY2026: 3,131 t REOQ4FY2026: 2,941 t REO2,4342,8283,6912,3593,1312,941
Gross-sales REO basket priceAUD/kgQ3FY2025: 50.50 AUD/kgQ4FY2025: 60.20 AUD/kgQ1FY2026: 54.30 AUD/kgQ2FY2026: 85.60 AUD/kgQ3FY2026: 84.60 AUD/kgQ4FY2026: 98.20 AUD/kg50.560.254.385.684.698.2
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsAUDQ3FY2025: 123,000,000 AUDQ4FY2025: 170,200,000 AUDQ1FY2026: 200,200,000 AUDQ2FY2026: 201,900,000 AUDQ3FY2026: 265,000,000 AUDQ4FY2026: 288,900,000 AUD123,000,000170,200,000200,200,000201,900,000265,000,000288,900,000
Operating metric source table45
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2025Quarter1,509 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2025Quarter1,911 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2025Quarter2,434 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2025Quarter50.5 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2025Quarter123,000,000 AUDReported
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2025Quarter2,080 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2025Quarter3,212 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2025Quarter2,828 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2025Quarter60.2 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2025Quarter170,200,000 AUDReported
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ1FY2026Quarter2,003 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ1FY2026Quarter3,993 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ1FY2026Quarter3,691 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ1FY2026Quarter54.3 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ1FY2026Quarter200,200,000 AUDReported
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ2FY2026Quarter1,404 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ2FY2026Quarter2,382 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ2FY2026Quarter2,359 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ2FY2026Quarter85.6 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ2FY2026Quarter201,900,000 AUDReported
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2026Quarter1,996 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2026Quarter3,233 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2026Quarter3,131 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2026Quarter84.6 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ3FY2026Quarter265,000,000 AUDReported
NdPr oxide productionMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2026Quarter1,857 t NdPrReported
Total REO productionMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2026Quarter3,481 t REOReported
REO sales volumeMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2026Quarter2,941 t REOReported
Gross-sales REO basket priceMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2026Quarter98.2 AUD/kgReported
Gross quarterly sales excluding quotation adjustmentsMt Weld IntegratedQ4FY2026Quarter288,900,000 AUDReported
Total REO outputMt Weld IntegratedFY2025Year10,462 t REOReported
Total REO salesMt Weld IntegratedFY2025Year10,970 t REOReported
Audited revenueCompanyFY2025Year556,512,000 AUDReported
Company non-IFRS EBITDACompanyFY2025Year101,200,000 AUDReported
OCF less PP&E development paymentsCompanyFY2025Year-326,656,000 AUDSource Derived
NdPr productionMt Weld IntegratedFY2025Year6,558 t NdPrReported
Total REO outputMt Weld IntegratedFY2026Year13,089 t REOReported
Total REO salesMt Weld IntegratedFY2026Year12,122 t REOReported
Audited revenueCompanyFY2026Year977,945,000 AUDReported
Company non-IFRS EBITDACompanyFY2026Year386,000,000 AUDReported
OCF less PP&E development paymentsCompanyFY2026Year140,542,000 AUDSource Derived
NdPr productionMt Weld IntegratedFY2026Year7,260 t NdPrReported
Cash equivalents only; term deposits excludedCompany2025-06-30Point In Time166,490,000 AUDReported
Cash equivalents only; term deposits excludedCompany2025-12-31Point In Time745,658,000 AUDReported
Cash equivalents only; term deposits excludedCompany2026-06-30Point In Time504,128,000 AUDReported
Company guidance2
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Illustrative Future Ndpr Nameplate Capacity, Not Production Forecastmt_weld_integratedPotential future capacity; timing not committed12,00012,000 tpa NdPrCurrent
Revised Total Hre Growth CAPEX Budget, Not Remaining Spendmt_weld_integratedFull multi-product expansion budget294,000,000294,000,000 AUDCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

3 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-10-01Raising—63.3M—Announced—
2026-08-26RaisingA$932.6M70.4M—Completed—
2026-08-06Ann. 2026-07-27DebtA$29M——Completed—

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Partial · as of 2026-10-13

All material arrangements identified in retained issuer releases and annual review registered; certain commercial volumes, prices and counterparties remain undisclosed.

NdPr floor: 110 USD/kg; Firm quantity: 5000 tpa NdPr; Available quantity: 7200 tpa NdPr; Upside threshold: 150 USD/kg NdPr; Upside share: 30 %; Annual payment cap: 10000000 USD

Commodity Hedge · Active
Counterparties
Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (JARE)
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
2026-03-10 to 2038-12-31
Key terms
NdPr floor: 110 USD/kg
Firm quantity: 5,000 tpa NdPr
Available quantity: 7,200 tpa NdPr
Upside threshold: 150 USD/kg NdPr
Upside share: 30 %
Annual payment cap: 10,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Face debt: 90000000 USD; Coupon: 2.5 %; Maturity: 2030-06-30

Other · Active
Counterparties
JARE
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Through 2030-06-30; start date not stated
Key terms
Face debt: 90,000,000 USD
Coupon: 2.5 %
Maturity: 2030-06-30
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Allocated supply funding: 96000000 USD; NdPr floor: 110 USD/kg NdPr

Offtake · Conditional
Counterparties
United States Department of War
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
From 2026-03-16; no end date stated
Key terms
Allocated supply funding: 96,000,000 USD
NdPr floor: 110 USD/kg NdPr
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Cross subscription: 29000000 AUD; LYC conversion price: 15.48 AUD/share; Coupon: 0 %; Note maturity: 2031-08-06

Strategic Partnership · Active
Counterparties
LS Eco Advanced Materials
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
2026-08-06 to 2031-08-06
Key terms
Cross subscription: 29,000,000 AUD
LYC conversion price: 15.48 AUD/share
Coupon: 0 %
Note maturity: 2031-08-06
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Group lease liability: 218655000 AUD

Other · Active
Counterparties
Zenith Energy
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Group lease liability: 218,655,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Permanent disposal project: 400000000 MYR

Other · Active
Counterparties
Gading Senggara Sdn Bhd
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Permanent disposal project: 400,000,000 MYR
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

FY2026 cash royalties8.774m; legal royalty rate is not separately established. Do not confuse reported historical cash ratio with contract rate.

Royalty · Active
Counterparties
Western Australia royalty recipients
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Burden
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
FY2026 royalties paid: 8,774,000 AUD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Conditional all-scrip scheme: ownership remains0%until completion; base and bull value the acquired business and incremental shares together, bear assumes failure.

Other · Conditional
Counterparties
Meteoric Resources
Applies to
Caldeira conditional acquisition option · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
From 2026-10-01; no end date stated
Key terms
Exchange ratio: 0.02 LYC share/MEI share
Proposed new shares: 63,344,637 shares
Target current ownership: 0 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

A35m advanced on execution; conditional75m additional availability after sixmonths/extension. Loan becomes intra-group on scheme completion; survives as external claim in failure case.

Other · Active
Counterparties
Meteoric Resources
Applies to
Caldeira conditional acquisition option · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
From 2026-10-01; no end date stated
Key terms
Tranche1: 35,000,000 AUD
Conditional tranche2: 75,000,000 AUD
Interest: 10 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Commercial relationship disclosed; binding quantified commercial terms not provided in selected primary documents.

Strategic Partnership · Announced
Counterparties
Noveon Magnetics
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Commercial relationship disclosed; binding quantified commercial terms not provided in selected primary documents.

Tolling Or Processing · Active
Counterparties
Existing metal-conversion providers (not identified in retained release)
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Commercial relationship disclosed; binding quantified commercial terms not provided in selected primary documents.

Strategic Partnership · Announced
Counterparties
JARE
Applies to
Mt Weld integrated rare earths business · Rare Earths
Economic direction
Benefit
Period
Dates not stated
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.