OREMAVEN
XMM 7,722.00 -2.63% YTD +5.6% OM ASX 450.55 -2.56% YTD +0.1% OM PRECIOUS 349.20 -2.24% YTD +2.5% OM EX-PREC 418.91 -2.72% YTD -1.1% XAU 4,115.59 +2.31% YTD -4.9% GLD 375.49 +0.81% YTD -5.2% GDX 85.75 +1.37% YTD -0.0% SIL 77.33 -1.00% YTD -7.3% COPX 70.23 -5.81% YTD -1.8% URNM 40.07 -2.79% YTD -27.0%
2026-11-06
◂ Monitor AAI ASX

ALCOA CORPORATION

Producer · Bauxite · Others · Australia · Brazil · Guinea · Spain · Canada · Iceland · Norway · United States · Saudi Arabia Rating locked: sign in to view v8.1 · aai-20261030t224404-full
Last 2026-11-06
A$55.94
1D
—
1M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—
Upside
Locked: sign in to view
Mkt cap
A$14.8B
EV
A$15.2B
Cash
US$4.4B
Debt
US$4.8B

Funding, performance and ownership

Financials & Capital

As of 2026-09-30
Cash US$4.4BFY 2024: 1,639,533,208FY 2025: 2,300,821,207 Self Funding
Debt US$4.8BFY 2024: 3,666,618,643FY 2025: 3,513,902,896 Net cash US$-414M
Basic shares 264M 2026-10-26
Runway Self Funding Nine-month operating cash flow US$1,072m and capital expenditure US$476m; producer working capital varies seasonally and a fixed burn runway is not meaningful.

Liquidity

Financial position

September reported unrestricted cash US$4,408m includes prefunding of the conditional acquisition. Debt carrying value US$4,822m; undrawn revolver US$1,250m. Acquisition has US$3,100m cash consideration plus fees and contingent claims.

Inventory composition5

US$2,570m operating working-capital inventory; no separate equity addition.

Finished goods
US$499M carrying
Work in process
US$400M carrying
Bauxite and alumina
US$647M carrying
Purchased raw materials
US$660M carrying
Operating supplies
US$364M carrying

Capital structure

Ownership and dilution

Ordinary shares
264M
Fully diluted
267.3M

263,969,874 ordinary common shares at 26 October plus 3,236,892 restricted units and 89,907 options outstanding 31 December 2025 gives 267,296,673 gross diluted proxy; current awards are not independently established. The 17,008,960 acquisition shares are conditional on completion.

Security classes3
ClassTypeQuantityStrikeExpiry
Common shares outstanding 26 October 2026Ordinary Share264M——
Gross restricted units outstanding 31 December 2025; dated current-denominator proxyPerformance Right3.2M——
Gross incentive options outstanding 31 December 2025; no exercise-proceeds creditOption89.9K——

Actuals and forecasts

Financial statements

Reported years only; our forecasts are available to subscribers
AUDUnitTrendFY 2024AFY 2025A
Operations
Alumina producedt—9,640,000
Aluminium producedt—2,319,000
Profit and loss
Third-party revenue, model scopeAUDmFY 2024: 17,137,300,101 AUDFY 2025: 18,485,808,961 AUD17,137.318,485.8
Operating costs and corporate chargesAUDmFY 2024: 14,848,004,610 AUDFY 2025: 15,654,804,783 AUD14,848.015,654.8
Adjusted operating cash earningsAUDmFY 2024: 2,289,295,491 AUDFY 2025: 2,831,004,178 AUD2,289.32,831.0
Depreciation and allowancesAUDmFY 2024: 924,938,770 AUDFY 2025: 897,565,192 AUD924.9897.6
Operating earnings proxyAUDmFY 2024: 1,364,356,721 AUDFY 2025: 1,933,438,986 AUD1,364.41,933.4
Interest expenseAUDmFY 2024: 224,751,477 AUDFY 2025: 227,632,906 AUD224.8227.6
Income taxAUDmFY 2024: 381,789,368 AUDFY 2025: -79,239,303 AUD381.8(79.2)
Net income attributable to AlcoaAUDmFY 2024: 86,442,876 AUDFY 2025: 1,666,906,786 AUD86.41,666.9
Cash flow
Operating cash flowAUDmFY 2024: 896,124,478 AUDFY 2025: 1,707,246,794 AUD896.11,707.2
Capital expenditureAUDmFY 2024: 835,614,465 AUDFY 2025: 890,361,619 AUD835.6890.4
Free cash flowAUDmFY 2024: 60,510,013 AUDFY 2025: 816,885,175 AUD60.5816.9
Balance sheet
CashAUDmFY 2024: 1,639,533,208 AUDFY 2025: 2,300,821,207 AUD1,639.52,300.8
DebtAUDmFY 2024: 3,666,618,643 AUDFY 2025: 3,513,902,896 AUD3,666.63,513.9
Net debtAUDmFY 2024: 2,027,085,434 AUDFY 2025: 1,213,081,689 AUD2,027.11,213.1
Multiples and ratios
EV / EBITDA (x, current EV)xFY 2024: 6.58 xFY 2025: 5.32 x6.65.3
P / E (x, current market cap)xFY 2024: 169 xFY 2025: 8.79 x169.58.8
FCF yield (current market cap)%FY 2024: 0.00 fractionFY 2025: 0.06 fraction0.4%5.6%
EBITDA margin%FY 2024: 0.13 fractionFY 2025: 0.15 fraction13.4%15.3%
Net debt / EBITDA (x)xFY 2024: 0.89 xFY 2025: 0.43 x0.90.4

KPI history

Operating metrics · Alumina and bauxite platform

Production (reported group scope) shown
0694,6801,389,3602,084,0402,778,720Q1 2025: 2,355,000 tQ1 2025Q2 2025: 2,351,000 tQ2 2025Q3 2025: 2,453,000 tQ3 2025Q4 2025: 2,481,000 tQ4 2025Q1 2026: 2,355,000 tQ1 2026Q2 2026: 2,218,000 tQ2 2026Q3 2026
MetricUnitTrendQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Production (reported group scope)tQ1 2025: 2,355,000 tQ2 2025: 2,351,000 tQ3 2025: 2,453,000 tQ4 2025: 2,481,000 tQ1 2026: 2,355,000 tQ2 2026: 2,218,000 t2,355,0002,351,0002,453,0002,481,0002,355,0002,218,000—
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)USD/tQ1 2025: 312 USD/tQ2 2025: 323 USD/tQ3 2025: 318 USD/tQ4 2025: 314 USD/tQ1 2026: 334 USD/tQ2 2026: 368 USD/t312323318314334368—
Realized product price (reported group scope)USD/tQ1 2025: 575 USD/tQ2 2025: 378 USD/tQ3 2025: 377 USD/tQ4 2025: 341 USD/tQ1 2026: 324 USD/tQ2 2026: 334 USD/t575378377341324334—

KPI history

Operating metrics · Aluminium and energy platform

Production (reported group scope) shown
0178,080356,160534,240712,320Q1 2025: 564,000 tQ1 2025Q2 2025: 572,000 tQ2 2025Q3 2025: 579,000 tQ3 2025Q4 2025: 604,000 tQ4 2025Q1 2026: 607,000 tQ1 2026Q2 2026: 636,000 tQ2 2026Q3 2026
MetricUnitTrendQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Production (reported group scope)tQ1 2025: 564,000 tQ2 2025: 572,000 tQ3 2025: 579,000 tQ4 2025: 604,000 tQ1 2026: 607,000 tQ2 2026: 636,000 t564,000572,000579,000604,000607,000636,000—
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)USD/tQ1 2025: 2,775 USD/tQ2 2025: 2,718 USD/tQ3 2025: 2,441 USD/tQ4 2025: 2,478 USD/tQ1 2026: 2,468 USD/tQ2 2026: 2,481 USD/t2,7752,7182,4412,4782,4682,481—
Realized product price (reported group scope)USD/tQ1 2025: 3,213 USD/tQ2 2025: 3,143 USD/tQ3 2025: 3,374 USD/tQ4 2025: 3,749 USD/tQ1 2026: 4,209 USD/tQ2 2026: 4,752 USD/t3,2133,1433,3743,7494,2094,752—

KPI history

Operating metrics · Company

Quarterly free cash flow shown
0118,160,000236,320,000354,480,000472,640,000Q1 2026: -298,000,000 USDQ1 2026Q2 2026: 422,000,000 USDQ2 2026Q3 2026
MetricUnitTrendQ1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Quarterly free cash flowUSDQ1 2026: -298,000,000 USDQ2 2026: 422,000,000 USD(298,000,000)422,000,000—
Operating metric source table55
MetricProjectPeriodPeriod typeValueStatus
RevenueCompany2023Year10,551,000,000 USDReported
Free Cash FlowCompany2023Year-440,000,000 USDSource Derived
CashCompany2023Year944,000,000 USDReported
RevenueCompany2024Year11,895,000,000 USDReported
Free Cash FlowCompany2024Year42,000,000 USDSource Derived
CashCompany2024Year1,138,000,000 USDReported
RevenueCompany2025Year12,831,000,000 USDReported
Free Cash FlowCompany2025Year567,000,000 USDSource Derived
CashCompany2025Year1,597,000,000 USDReported
DebtCompany2025Year2,448,000,000 USDReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2025Quarter2,355,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2025Quarter312 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2025Quarter575 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2025Quarter564,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2025Quarter2,775 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2025Quarter3,213 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2025Quarter2,351,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2025Quarter323 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2025Quarter378 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2025Quarter572,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2025Quarter2,718 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2025Quarter3,143 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2025Quarter2,453,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2025Quarter318 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2025Quarter377 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2025Quarter579,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2025Quarter2,441 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2025Quarter3,374 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ4 2025Quarter2,481,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ4 2025Quarter314 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ4 2025Quarter341 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ4 2025Quarter604,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ4 2025Quarter2,478 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ4 2025Quarter3,749 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2026Quarter2,355,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2026Quarter334 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ1 2026Quarter324 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2026Quarter607,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2026Quarter2,468 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ1 2026Quarter4,209 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2026Quarter2,218,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2026Quarter368 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ2 2026Quarter334 USD/tReported
Production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2026Quarter636,000 tReported
Adjusted production cost (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2026Quarter2,481 USD/tReported
Realized product price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ2 2026Quarter4,752 USD/tReported
Quarterly free cash flowCompanyQ1 2026Quarter-298,000,000 USDReported
Quarterly free cash flowCompanyQ2 2026Quarter422,000,000 USDReported
Alumina production (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2026Quarter2,467,000 tReported
Adjusted operating cost per tonne shipped (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2026Quarter354 USD/tReported
Realized third-party alumina price (reported group scope)Alumina SystemQ3 2026Quarter353 USD/tReported
Aluminium production (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2026Quarter649,000 tReported
Adjusted operating cost per tonne shipped (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2026Quarter2,584 USD/tReported
Realized third-party aluminium price (reported group scope)Metal SystemQ3 2026Quarter4,527 USD/tReported
Free cash flowCompanyQ3 2026Quarter472,000,000 USDReported
Company guidance2
MetricProjectPeriodLowHighStatus
Productionalumina-systemFY20269,500,0009,600,000 tCurrent
Productionmetal-systemFY20262,400,0002,600,000 tCurrent

Capital history

Capital events

3 events · newest first
DateEventAmountSharesPriceStatusTerms
2026-09-23DebtUS$2.6B——Completed—
2026-06-30Ann. 2026-07-16DividendUS$53M——Completed—
2026-07-01Raising—17M—Announced—

Contracts and ownership

Material economic arrangements These are deals that can affect sales, costs, funding or ownership. An arrangement marked “Included in valuation” may already be built into a project estimate or the bridge to shareholder value. A separate amount is shown only when one can be estimated; do not add it again.

Partial · as of 2026-10-30

Major contractual terms reviewed in the annual report, quarterly filings and transaction memorandum. San Ciprián became wholly owned in August. Complete power and currency contract settlement terms are unavailable.

Electricity and embedded metal-linked power settlement cash flows are included in operating net realization. Gross derivative liability is not deducted again.

Commodity Hedge · Active
Counterparties
Multiple power counterparties
Applies to
Aluminium and energy platform · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Forward cash hedge loss: 376,000,000 USD
Embedded power derivative liabilities: 1,200,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

FX forwards/swaps cover AU USD sales to December 2032, Norway to December 2031, euro expenses to December 2027 and other disclosed periods. Full settlement rates unavailable; model uses broad FX sensitivity.

FX Hedge · Active
Counterparties
Bank and utility counterparties
Applies to
Alumina and bauxite platform · Aluminium and energy platform · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Australia USD sales horizon: 2032-12-31 date
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

The former 75/25 joint venture ended after conversion of an existing US$153 million Alcoa note and the US$28 million purchase of the remaining interest, effective 1 August 2026. The note was consolidated already and is not an external debt deduction.

Joint Venture · Terminated
Counterparties
Trento EQT
Applies to
Alumina and bauxite platform · Aluminium and energy platform · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
2025-03-31 to 2026-08-01
Key terms
Alcoa equity share: 75 %
Convertible partner financing: 153,000,000 USD
How it affects our valuation

This arrangement has ended; no current valuation treatment is required.

Alcoa owns 45% of Halco, which owns 51% CBG: effective 22.95%. Annual production, resource and reserve tables are already attributable.

Joint Venture · Active
Counterparties
Guinea government · Halco partners
Applies to
Boke / CBG · Alumina and bauxite platform · Bauxite
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Effective interest: 22.95 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Alcoa holds 85,977,547 Maaden shares, one third becoming transferable on each third, fourth and fifth anniversary of the 1 July 2025 sale. Noncurrent marketable securities were US$1,389 million at 30 September 2026.

Other · Active
Counterparties
Maaden
Applies to
Locked Maaden listed equity · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Shares received: 85,977,547 shares
Sale lockup: 2028–2030 years
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Conditional South32 AliGroup acquisition announced 30 June 2026 in the US and 1 July in Australia. South32 shareholders approved on 15 October; regulatory approvals and other conditions remain. Ownership transfers on completion, guided for the first half of 2027, and locked-box economics accrue from 1 April 2026 only if completed. The share consideration is 17,008,960 common shares or CDIs. Management estimated more than US$300 million in the locked box at 30 September.

Strategic Partnership · Conditional
Counterparties
South32
Applies to
Alumina and bauxite platform · Aluminium and energy platform · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Cash consideration: 3,100,000,000 USD
New common shares: 17,008,960 shares
CVR maximum: 750,000,000 USD
Ticking fee: 5 %/yr
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.

Multi-year electricity and gas purchases stabilize continuity, but many prices float. Portland July 2026 contract runs nine years; NYPA starts April 2026 ten years; Iceland contract 2048 with 2028 renegotiation.

Offtake · Active
Counterparties
AGL · NYPA · Hydro-Quebec · Landsvirkjun · Gas suppliers
Applies to
Aluminium and energy platform · Alumina and bauxite platform · Others
Economic direction
Mixed
Period
Dates not stated
Key terms
Portland contracted load: 587 MW
WA refinery gas coverage 2027: 90 %
How it affects our valuation

No valuation treatment is available for this arrangement.